Tbh your day as it settled looks good, so u'd be surprised if it were OT creeping. My gut feel is probably teeth causing sleep disturbance. Also, active teething makes my DD more tired and she does need either extra Naptime or EBT or sometimes even both. Any sign of teeth?
Personally, I would keep with what you're doing and I'd your LO seems more tired than usual offer the nap 15min early and allow a longer nap with normal BT. If she has a shorter nap, EBT. If go this until things settle down.
What do you think?
Oh, re: the CN and not going down for a nap, it maybe because she had solid sleep through despite the EW, she wasn't ready after 2h? It's hard to say, they ate all so different. The 2h mark did work for us. I guess where you can, If you can avoid the CN it'll make the transition easier for you.
Hth xx