Hmmm. Its hard to say, esp since she slept less last night (10hrs) after the shorter nap than she has been doing with a 2hr nap (10.5hrs). It looks like OT - but I have a niggling suspicion you are still in an UT/OT loop. The not settling at BT like that is more likely to be UT, esp if she is playing/faffing as opposed to crying.
I still think her nap is too early, starting at 12.30pm & I think this is contributing to her waking early. IIWM I would keep nap at 1h 15 but gradually push it over the next week or so to a 1pm start, maybe even 1.15pm. Then if she is still not settling I would trim to an hour, keeping to 5hrs A max between nap & bedtime.
We are currently doing
Up: ~7am
Nap: 1.15-2.30
Bed: 7.30 but he's falling asleep nearer to 7.45.
So our nights are still only around 11hrs. I think we are going to have to cap at 1hr very soon too (will probably do this by pushing nap to 1.30-2.30pm keeping end time the same) - its like his A times have suddenly shot up again.
HTH.x