I'm afraid that if I go in and start shh/patting him before he starts to wake that I will be stuck there even longer or end up waking him too much if he would've possibly slept through on his own.
- You only do the W2S in cycles so you do it 3 days and hold off day 4 to see how he goes alone, if he wakes and cries on day 4 you resettle however you can then do another cycle of 3 days again. And repeat until he's got it. At the moment you never know if he's going to do a long nap or not, mostly not, with this training you would (hopefully) at the end of it know that he was good for a full nap and you are free to your Y time instead of always being on edge.
- The method where you disturb LO is most suited to a LO who already knows how to connect cycles alone and is used for habitual waking which is a bit different to this. Your LO doesn't seem to have learned he is supposed to sleep longer naps. Linking cycles at night is different to linking in the day so it doesn't count that he can do a longer stretch at night. The method of disturbing is likely to go something like this:
S for 30 min - W2S disturb - comes out of deep sleep and needs to begin a new cycle - doesn't know how - cries/calls for you - you go in to resettle. Now you've been in twice and he slept even shorter than normal.
On a short nap of 40 mins there just isn't the time to do the disturbance W2S plus he still doesn't know what to do when he wakes or moves into the light sleep.
This method is better for older babies who know how to transition and for babies who find patting or a firm hand disturbing instead of soothing. It's good for LOs who are sleeping say 1hr 20 instead of 2hrs as a new cycle can be kick started at around 1hr 10.
With the patting through the transition W2S method you are teaching him that he is safe at the 40 min mark and there is no need to fully wake to call for you. The method is to begin 10 min before the usual wake up time and to continue until the next deep sleep state is reached. However if you are concerned about going in at 30 mins (which is what you'd have to do with the disturbing method anyway) and patting how about go in at 30 min and just ready yourself? I have done this with mine and it worked great. Go in at 30 min, quietly, sit by the cot, put your hand close, very close, but not on him. Watch closely. As soon as you see him begin to stir or breathing change (coming to lighter sleep and waking) put your hand on and begin shush/pat (the way you usually would), use as much as is needed and keep going until he is fully asleep. If it is only 5 mins then great - leave. If it takes longer then it takes longer. The thing with this method is that the reassurance comes very very fast, no need to call out for help/mummy as you are already there.
I know you are hesitant, just try for one nap each day (the same nap each day) for a cycle or 2 and see what happens.
If the white noise isn't helpful just leave it off. You do not necessarily need to shush at the W2S either - do what you feel he needs as you know him best, either shush/pat or just pat or even just a firm hand with a reassuring key phrase if you ever use one, "it's okay, sleepy time, go to sleep".