Well to be honest I would still offer a nap - there's no harm in offering.
With Finn, I can only offer, he can sleep or not sleep. At least it's a forced rest in the morning IYKWIM? If he doesn't sleep he just stays in his crib babbling in the dark. So I offer him a nap at 9, same wind down, same everything, and then I get him out by 9:30 (I usually stir him at 9:20 and give him time to wake up). So I always offer it, but am prepared for him to just take the one nap midday if he 'sleeps in' (lol whoever thought 5:45 would be sleeping in).
I have pretty much given up trying to fight this one. It's one I am not going to win so just going with it.
So I think you should plan to offer him something in the AM, even if it's just 20 - 30 mins. But recognize that if he has a longer night and later waking, you may just get the one nap and an earlier bedtime. Especially when W. has days at the childminders where sleep is wonky, it's nice to give him that chance to catch up at home...if he doesn't use it then he may be rested enough...but it still gives everyone a rest period in the morning.