I think you're both right, Trimbler and Suzanna.
Haha! Trimbler, you're so funny! I didn't know you were a physicist! So awesome. I did a stint in a Microbio/Rheumatology lab as a technician so your statement brought back memories. =D I wish I could give you all 210 days worth of data and have you and your husband figure out M's sleep for me. Wouldn't that be something... a scientific algorithm that provides customized toddler sleep schedules and instructions. Lol.
Again, I think you're right, Trimbler and so I tried. I tried waking him up early from nap two days in a row and he just cried, woke, then laid there for a few mins (I gave him a few mins) and then he went right back to sleep. He was so tired in the mornings and it was a struggle to get him to 12:30 nap time. (I feel like any earlier nap would move his WU even earlier, but I could be totally wrong). So I didn't have the heart to keep capping until I felt he was caught up... which perpetuated the shorter nights, and the OT cycle probably.
I had no choice when DH took him out this past Sat. and said he did a 1.15min nap in the car. But he didn't get home until 8:15, and M was a wreck. (He's usually in bed by 7:30). So given the circumstances, he fell asleep at 8:45, and the WU next day was 6:30! BUT, with a couple NWs. So the following 2 days were basically 8:30 BT (Thanks for the suggestion Suzanna), 1-2:30 Nap, 6:15/6:30 WU, until today. Woke at 4:30 and stayed awake until 6:00. Fell asleep and woke at 7:30. Refused nap at 1:00. Brought him out at 2:30. He fell asleep at 6:25. Our first official NND. Someone hold my hand. Haha. Cross fingers! I wonder what tonight will bring. A 6:00 WU would be heaven. Trimbler, I think you're the one that said he might be dropping his nap sooner than most. =(
QUESTIONS: What if he has an EW (say before 5:30ish)? BT? And if he wakes after 6, suggestions for nap time (I know length will be 1 hr)?
Oh, I forgot to mention that I ruled out a few things... hunger (gave him snack before bed), teething, wet diapers. I do think in the mix was a growth spurt, as he has all of a sudden grown out of his pants! He's so much taller! And mental, language development... full on sentences and compound sentences suddenly, jokes, etc...
Well, tomorrow is his birthday! He must have decided he doesn't want to miss anything during the day. Haha. Thanks everyone for your help.